How Much is Full Tilt Poker Worth?
January 2, 2011
The following is our back of the napkin calculations that show that Full Tilt Poker's net worth is sufficient to allow an investor to purchase the company, refund all player balances plus a premium and still make a profit - which is good news for Full tilt Players who have funds that they cannot currently withdraw from the site.
Full Tilt Poker is estimated to be worth US $6.43 Billion Dollars as of January 2009 by Gambling Sites.com That valuation we figure is too high when compared to BwinParty which currently valued at $1.67 billion dollars in a downward trending stock market. In 2010 Party Poker's market cap averaged $3.58 Billion Dollars. Now the reason that we bring Party Poker into it is also that they paid $300 million in fines to the US DOJ in 2008 to end any pending lawsuits against them - they absorbed that when in 2006 60% to 80% of their gaming revenue came from the US. So that was a bigger drop than Full Tilt this spring. 35% of Full Tilt Poker's players were based in the US according to the drop in poker traffic after Black Friday according to Poker Scout, and it is estimated 43% of their revenues came from US Players.
The high end of the valuation for Full Tilt would be $6.43 billion X 57% = $3.66 Billion Dollars. Now at the lower end of the valuation we would take an additional 53% off of that valuation to reflect current market conditions which is the same as the drop in Party's share value. That would leave a valuation of $1.7 Billion US dollars now considering the current climate and the repercussions and loss of brand trust the value is likely closer to a Billion dollars but that is far more than the total amount of funds due to players. Now Full Tilt does have better software than party especially the industry leading Rush Poker, but Party also has Casino and Sports Betting. If Full Tilt were to offer sports betting and casino games, with proper management the valuation potential for Full Tilt is much higher than that. The opportunity lies for an investor who is willing not just to pay out players but to provide them with additional compensation to try to win their favour. In our estimation 25% premium on their accounts plus a massive bonus incentive to play on would be required. Bodog poker is one of the most respected names in online gambling and they have doubled their deposit bonus to 100% up to $500 + Cashback for new Canadian players - That's a huge bonus for a top poker site and Full Tilt would have to do even better than that.
At Play Poker Online Canada we are monitoring the situation and will update you of any changes. There is little risk of players losing their money at non US sites. The safest 3 sites that do not have American exposure are: Bodog, 888poker, and Party Poker
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